Hot Topics In Current Times
Sunday, November 27, 2005
25000 crores in Mumbai Building maddness.
I look around in mumbai and everywhere I see is new building constructions. The papers are full of advts of builders touting the latest amenities in the tallest of buildings. The building boom is evident in Pune, Gurgoan, Delhi and Bangalore where its thrashed the infrastructure.
I took up the saturday edition of property times from the Times of India (Nov 26th 2005) and did a quick data-analysis and came up with approximately 40k apartments which could be potentially for sale. I havn't analyzed New Bombay and beyond Thane and all the other buildings not listed but if you add those up, I think we might hit approximately 50k new apartments for sale.
If we can take the 10/20/30/40 rule for apt sizes and estimating that most apts are 2BHKs and next most are 3BHKs, 1 BHK'should be 3rd with 4 BHks as the least amount
1BHK = 10k * 20L = 2ooK L = 2000 crores
2bhk = 20k * 40L = 800k L = 8000 crores
3BHK = 15K * 60 L = 900k L = 9000 crores
4bhk = 5k * 120 L = 600k L = 6000 crores
----------------------------------------------------------------
= 25000 crores
----------------------------------------------------------------
If we add 20% as unlisted properties as 20% of the amount conservatively we can
reach 25000 + 5000 = 30000 crores rupees of real estate for sale in the next 2 years
Im befuddled by the numbers and wonder where I'm goofing up.
the table used for my analysis is below..
¶ 5:15 AM 0 comments
I look around in mumbai and everywhere I see is new building constructions. The papers are full of advts of builders touting the latest amenities in the tallest of buildings. The building boom is evident in Pune, Gurgoan, Delhi and Bangalore where its thrashed the infrastructure.
I took up the saturday edition of property times from the Times of India (Nov 26th 2005) and did a quick data-analysis and came up with approximately 40k apartments which could be potentially for sale. I havn't analyzed New Bombay and beyond Thane and all the other buildings not listed but if you add those up, I think we might hit approximately 50k new apartments for sale.
If we can take the 10/20/30/40 rule for apt sizes and estimating that most apts are 2BHKs and next most are 3BHKs, 1 BHK'should be 3rd with 4 BHks as the least amount
1BHK = 10k * 20L = 2ooK L = 2000 crores
2bhk = 20k * 40L = 800k L = 8000 crores
3BHK = 15K * 60 L = 900k L = 9000 crores
4bhk = 5k * 120 L = 600k L = 6000 crores
----------------------------------------------------------------
= 25000 crores
----------------------------------------------------------------
If we add 20% as unlisted properties as 20% of the amount conservatively we can
reach 25000 + 5000 = 30000 crores rupees of real estate for sale in the next 2 years
Im befuddled by the numbers and wonder where I'm goofing up.
the table used for my analysis is below..
| Builder | Name | Location | No Blds | Stories | Total Flats | 1 BHK | 2 BHK | 3 BHK | 4 BHK | Completion | Rate | No Of Apts | Total Apts | Terrace | Avg Wings | Flats/Floor | |
| K Raheja | Classique Complex | Andheri(w), New Link Road | 1.00 | 24.00 | 432 | N | Y | Y | N | N | 3 | 6 | |||||
| K Raheja | Palm Court Complex | Malad (w) - Adjoining Goregoan Sports Complex | 1.00 | 15.00 | 270 | N | Y | Y | N | N | |||||||
| AP Properties | Kanta Apts | SantaCruz(w) | 1.00 | 11.00 | 198 | N | N | N | Y | 30/10/2005 | N | ||||||
| AP Properties | Preetika Apts | Andheri(e),Powai | 1.00 | 9.00 | 162 | N | N | N | Y | Ready | N | ||||||
| AP Properties | Panchsmruti | Borivali(e) | 1.00 | N | Y | Y | Y | N | |||||||||
| Lokhandawala township | Highland | Kandivali(e) | 1.00 | N | Y | Y | N | N | |||||||||
| Lokhandawala township | Spring Leaf | Kandivali(e) | 1.00 | N | Y | N | N | N | |||||||||
| Lokhandawala township | Chrysalis | Vile Parle(W),Juhu Jagrati Marg | 1.00 | N | Y | Y | N | N | |||||||||
| Inder Tower A&B | Prabhadevi & Dadar | 1.00 | N | Y | Y | N | N | ||||||||||
| Aristo Reality DevelopersLtd. | Lloyds Estate wings e,f&g | Wadala(e) | 3.00 | 7.00 | 378 | N | Y | N | N | N | |||||||
| R.N.A builders | Royal Park | Kandavili (w) | 1.00 | 24.00 | 432 | N | Y | Y | N | N | |||||||
| R.N.A builders | R.N.A Azure | Bandra(e) | 1.00 | 14.00 | 252 | N | Y | Y | N | Y | |||||||
| R.N.A builders (NG) | NG Royal Park | KanjurMarg(e) | 11.00 | 19.00 | 3762 | N | Y | Y | N | Y | |||||||
| Ajemra Group | Shastri Nagar | Andheri (w) before Lokhandawala | 1.00 | N | Y | Y | Y | N | |||||||||
| M.S Shah | Nilgiri | Andheri(e) near international airport | 1.00 | 12.00 | 216 | Y | Y | N | N | N | |||||||
| Lashkaria | Green Towers | Andheri(w), Near Bhavans College | 1.00 | Y | Y | Y | N | N | |||||||||
| Monarch Constructions | Pacific Towers | Andheri(w) | 3.00 | 15.00 | 810 | Y | Y | P | P | N | |||||||
| Dynamics Group | Moksh | Malad (e) - Upper Govind Nagar | 1.00 | 8.00 | 144 | N | N | Y | Y | N | |||||||
| Royal Palms | Summit Apts | Goregoan | 1.00 | Y | Y | Y | N | N | |||||||||
| Divya Developments | Divya Smit | Kandivali(w),Mahavir Nagar | 1.00 | Y | N | N | N | N | |||||||||
| Divya Developments | Divya Siddhivinayak | Kandivali(w),Mahavir Nagar | 1.00 | N | Y | Y | N | N | |||||||||
| Divya Developments | Divya Smruti | Malad(w) | 1.00 | Y | Y | N | N | N | |||||||||
| Chiven Developers | Accord | Kandivali(w),Mahavir Nagar | 1.00 | Y | Y | N | N | N | |||||||||
| Lokhandawala township | Whispering Palms XX | Kandivali(e) | 1.00 | N | N | Y | Y | N | |||||||||
| Neelkanth | Palms | Thane(w),NR Tatvagyan Vidyapeeth | 1.00 | N | Y | Y | N | N | |||||||||
| Neelkanth | Heights | Thane(w),Pokhran Rd 2. | 1.00 | N | Y | Y | Y | N | |||||||||
| Kalpataru | Tarangan | Thane(w),Pokhran Rd 1. | 1.00 | N | Y | Y | N | N | |||||||||
| Rose builders | Lourdes Heritage | Malad(w) | 1.00 | 15.00 | 270 | N | Y | N | N | Dec O5 | N | ||||||
| Bhoomi builders | Bhoomi Park | Malad(w),Marve Road. | 1.00 | Y | Y | Y | N | Ready | N | ||||||||
| Bhoomi builders | Bhoomi Valley | Malad(w),Marve Road. | 1.00 | Y | Y | Y | N | N | |||||||||
| Happy Valley | Happy Valley | Thane(w) | 1.00 | N | Y | Y | Y | N | |||||||||
| Pride Park | Pride Park | Thane(w),Godbunder Rd. | 1.00 | N | Y | Y | N | JanO6 | N | ||||||||
| Shjree Tirupathi Green Fields | Symphony | Thane(w) | 1.00 | 18.00 | 138 | N | Y | Y | N | 138 | N | ||||||
| Kartik Constructions | Solitare | Thane(w) | 1.00 | N | Y | Y | N | N | |||||||||
| Sanghvi | Sanghvi Hills | Thane(w),Godbunder Rd. | 1.00 | 300 | Y | Y | Y | N | 300 | N | |||||||
| Mayuresh Srishti | Mayuresh Srishti | Bhandup(w) | 1.00 | Y | Y | Y | N | N | |||||||||
| Mayuresh Srishti | Mayuresh Srishti Park | Bhandup(w) | 1.00 | Y | Y | Y | N | N | |||||||||
| Mahadev Builders | Samarath Gardens | Bhandup(w) | 7.00 | 14.00 | 1764 | Y | Y | N | N | N | |||||||
| Choudhury Builders | MadhuBan | Chembur Nr TISS | 1.00 | 14.00 | 252 | Y | Y | Y | N | Ready | N | ||||||
| B.Raheja. | Belmonte | Mahim | 1.00 | N | |||||||||||||
| B.Raheja. | Windemere | Versova | 1.00 | N | |||||||||||||
| B.Raheja. | Park Plaza | Versova | 1.00 | N | |||||||||||||
| B.Raheja. | Brook Haven | Jogeshwari | 1.00 | N | |||||||||||||
| B.Raheja. | Iris Park 56681111 | Jogeshwari | 1.00 | N | |||||||||||||
| K.Raheja | Maple Leaf. 9820880021, / 9820880023. | Andheri(e),Chandivili. | 1.00 | 12.00 | 216 | N | Y | P | P | N | |||||||
| Evershine Builders | Evershine City AvenueII. /2460883 | Vasai(e) | 1.00 | Y | Y | N | N | N | |||||||||
| Evershine Builders | Crown | Kandivili(e) | 2.00 | 34.00 | 1224 | N | N | Y | N | N | |||||||
| Evershine Builders | EMParadise. 28854246 | Kandivili(e), Thakur Village. | 1.00 | N | N | Y | N | Ready | N | ||||||||
| Evershine Builders | Cosmic | Andheri(w), Oshiwara | 3.00 | 26.00 | 1404 | N | Y | Y | Y | N | |||||||
| Evershine Builders | Sapphire | Andheri(e),Chandivili. | 1.00 | 19.00 | 342 | N | Y | Y | Y | N | |||||||
| Hiranandani Builders | Meadows-Meredian | Thane(w),Pokhran Rd 2. | 1.00 | 27.00 | 486 | N | N | Y | N | N | |||||||
| Hiranandani Builders | Meadows-Ixora | Thane(w),Pokhran Rd 2. | 1.00 | 27.00 | 486 | N | N | N | Y | N | |||||||
| Hiranandani Builders | Meadows-Mayflower. | Thane(w),Pokhran Rd 2. | 1.00 | 26.00 | 468 | N | Y | N | N | N | |||||||
| Hiranandani Builders | Meadows-Buttercup. | Thane(w),Pokhran Rd 2. | 1.00 | 27.00 | 486 | N | Y | N | N | N | |||||||
| Hiranandani Builders | Hiranandani Gardens,Somerset. | Powai.. 9819500117/9820394289 | 1.00 | 30.00 | 540 | N | N | N | Y | N | |||||||
| Hiranandani Builders | Hiranandani Gardens,Torino. | Powai | 1.00 | 37.00 | 666 | N | N | Y | N | N | |||||||
| Hiranandani Builders | Hiranandani Gardens,Octavius | Powai | 1.00 | 36.00 | 648 | N | N | Y | Y | N | |||||||
| Hiranandani Builders | Hiranandani Gardens,Eldoro | Powai | 1.00 | 27.00 | 486 | N | Y | Y | N | N | |||||||
| Hiranandani Builders | Hiranandani Estate - Bloomingdale | Thane(w) - Patlipada | 1.00 | 22.00 | 396 | N | N | Y | N | N | |||||||
| Hiranandani Builders | Hiranandani Estate - Fiona | Thane(w) | 1.00 | 27.00 | 486 | N | N | Y | N | N | |||||||
| Hiranandani Builders | Hiranandani Estate - Evelina | Thane(w) | 1.00 | 27.00 | 486 | N | N | N | Y | N | |||||||
| Hiranandani Builders | Hiranandani Estate - Villa Royale | Thane(w) | 1.00 | 14.00 | 252 | N | Y | N | N | N | |||||||
| Damji Shyamji | Mahavir Trinkets | KanjurMarg(w) Off LBS Rd | 1.00 | 15.00 | 270 | Y | Y | N | N | DecO5 | N | ||||||
| Damji Shyamji | Mahavir Classik | Saki Vihar | 1.00 | 12.00 | 216 | Y | Y | N | N | DecO5 | N | ||||||
| Vijay Group | Annexe | Thane (w) - Ghodbunder Rd. | 1.00 | N | Y | Y | N | N | |||||||||
| Vijay Group | Vatika | Thane (w) - 9819899981 | 1.00 | Y | N | N | N | N | |||||||||
| Vijay Group | Enclave | Thane (w) - 9819899982 | 1.00 | N | Y | N | N | N | |||||||||
| Vijay Group | Garden | Thane (w) | 1.00 | Y | Y | N | N | N | |||||||||
| Vijay Group | Park | Thane (w) | 1.00 | Y | N | N | N | N | |||||||||
| Vijay Group | Vilas | Thane (w) | 1.00 | N | Y | Y | N | ||||||||||
| Cosmos Group | Cosmos Park | Thane (w) | 8.00 | 7.00 | 1008 | Y | Y | N | N | ||||||||
| Cosmos Group | Cosmos Park | Thane (w) | 1.00 | 12.00 | 216 | Y | Y | N | N | ||||||||
| 20562 | |||||||||||||||||
| 37 bldsg with avg story size 15(for unknowns) * P2 *Q2 | 22200 | ||||||||||||||||
| 42762 |
Saturday, August 13, 2005
Independence for the Mumbaikar
Mumbaikar's are a selfish lot. There are a few kind soul's in the concrete city whch give the city its Mumbaikar "spirit".
The majority of people don't care for the poor. If someone who appears dressed well faints on the road, immediately a crowd would gather and take the person to the hospital. On the other hand if its someone who belongs to the lower strata of society, one can see the mumbaikar look the other way in indifference.
The Money power is evidenced in all aspects of the Mumbaikar's life. The common man does not make enough money to sustain his family and we hear of real estate appreciation of 25-50% in residential areas.
60% of Mumbai lives in the slums, another 20% lives in the buildings which are crumbling and the rest of the 20% is where there is rapid appreciation.
Its ironic a city of 15 million the mill land renewal will feed the frenzy of the real estate barons instead of housing the people who need it the most. and ofcourse the Mumbaikar will turn a blind eye too it, and get down to his selfish cause of making his living.
If he had civic sense, there would be movements and rallies against the blatant rape of the mumbaikar, instead the mumbaikar will try to catch the 5.12 fast. for thats where half of his life has been spent, in the years gone by.
On the eve of independence day the Mumbaikar has to rise and seek his(and her) own independence from the squalor, apathy and the state of disgust the city has become ¶ 9:53 AM 0 comments
Mumbaikar's are a selfish lot. There are a few kind soul's in the concrete city whch give the city its Mumbaikar "spirit".
The majority of people don't care for the poor. If someone who appears dressed well faints on the road, immediately a crowd would gather and take the person to the hospital. On the other hand if its someone who belongs to the lower strata of society, one can see the mumbaikar look the other way in indifference.
The Money power is evidenced in all aspects of the Mumbaikar's life. The common man does not make enough money to sustain his family and we hear of real estate appreciation of 25-50% in residential areas.
60% of Mumbai lives in the slums, another 20% lives in the buildings which are crumbling and the rest of the 20% is where there is rapid appreciation.
Its ironic a city of 15 million the mill land renewal will feed the frenzy of the real estate barons instead of housing the people who need it the most. and ofcourse the Mumbaikar will turn a blind eye too it, and get down to his selfish cause of making his living.
If he had civic sense, there would be movements and rallies against the blatant rape of the mumbaikar, instead the mumbaikar will try to catch the 5.12 fast. for thats where half of his life has been spent, in the years gone by.
On the eve of independence day the Mumbaikar has to rise and seek his(and her) own independence from the squalor, apathy and the state of disgust the city has become ¶ 9:53 AM 0 comments
Thursday, February 24, 2005
Bond investing. http://www.investinginbonds.com/ Excellent site for bond investors
¶ 11:19 AM 0 comments
Sunday, December 26, 2004
Slashdot
John Battelle on Search
Rajesh Jain on emerging technology
Broadband daily ¶ 6:31 PM 0 comments
John Battelle on Search
Rajesh Jain on emerging technology
Broadband daily ¶ 6:31 PM 0 comments
Indian stock market notes
While stock markets movements cannot be predicted accurately, I think the fundamental boom in the Indian citizens lifestyle will drive up stock markets to levels not seen before. The Indian economy is waking up from a deep snooze (circa 1997), put to sleep by a stagnating economy, high interest rates, poor job growth,incompetent fiscal management and religious/caste strife. Compare the economy in 1997 with today's growing econony at 7%+, lowest interest rates in history, abundant jobs for the middle-class, record infrastructure investment and an increasing postive sentiment towards a better future.
While systemic problems of corruption, caste/religion politics, Indo/Pak tensions and the mafia-politicians nexus still remain, I think the harbingers of hate will tone the rhetoric down, and probably benefit in far greater magnitudes from a booming stock-market than they would otherwise. On similar lines, Las-Vegas provides a case where the mafia benefitted more due to legitimate gambling than their mafia activities.
While the stock market bullet train is pulling away, the question of which stocks to invest is always the toughest one. I believe bets on companies with strong balance sheets, good liquidty and whose stocks are breaking out probably provide the the best risk/reward ratio. While a rising tide raises all boats, stocks with poor fundamentals or illquid float get hammered heavily by bears whenever the sentiment turns negative. IMHO reducing risk is the best reward.
NSE stocks to watch
In todays market I think Tata Tele Services (TTML.NS on yahoo) , Petronet LNG (PLNG.NS) and IDBI (IDBI.NS) are 3 solid stocks fitting the above pattern.
TTML has been experiencing volume breakouts over the past week after consolidating for over more than a year. TTML will benefit from the increasing land-line/mobile phone demand and oligopolyic nature of telecom/mobile service providers. Its been a mystery why the stock has been stuck in a range for such a long time.
PLNG in my opinion is the best Public sector (PSU) natural gas play in the stock market and is experiencing volume breakouts. I think the goverment has privatized this at a discount, another mystery which will remain unsolved.
IDBI has been under constant accumulation as seen from the charts. I believe Merril Lynch acquired 16 Million shares at 87. I think IDBI is fundamentally sound play with low interest boosting large industrial loans disbursement and a new legal framwork which provides for speedy proceedings against delinquient loans.
Tata Motors(TAMO.NS) and Tata Iron and Steel (TISC.NS) also provides a solid case for investment.
TAMO is a leader in automobiles and the charts have been looking very good. The auto manufacturers are increasing prices to factor in the rise in commodity prices like steel/plastic as done by Maruti.
TISC is a good commodity play as the worldwide demand for steel increases and steel makers hike prices. Again the charts are exhibiting bullish signals
ADR's to watch
TTM(Tata motors) is mirroring the NSE stock, so US investors can use this as a proxy for the Indian stock.
Oppenhiemers India fund (IFN) and Morgan stanleys's India fund (IIF) are 2 closed end funds available for for US investors who want exposure to India. I think due to its limited corpus, these funds havn't done as well as Indian Mutual funds or other international funds with bigger capitalizations. Its better to invest in an international funds like Fidelity International Discovery/Templeton Developing Makets and gain broad diversification , rather than go with a laggard funds like IFN or IIF.
Disclaimer : The stocks mentioned above are neither a buy nor a sell recommendation. Investors should do their own due-diligence before making any investments.
¶ 5:42 PM 0 comments
While systemic problems of corruption, caste/religion politics, Indo/Pak tensions and the mafia-politicians nexus still remain, I think the harbingers of hate will tone the rhetoric down, and probably benefit in far greater magnitudes from a booming stock-market than they would otherwise. On similar lines, Las-Vegas provides a case where the mafia benefitted more due to legitimate gambling than their mafia activities.
While the stock market bullet train is pulling away, the question of which stocks to invest is always the toughest one. I believe bets on companies with strong balance sheets, good liquidty and whose stocks are breaking out probably provide the the best risk/reward ratio. While a rising tide raises all boats, stocks with poor fundamentals or illquid float get hammered heavily by bears whenever the sentiment turns negative. IMHO reducing risk is the best reward.
NSE stocks to watch
In todays market I think Tata Tele Services (TTML.NS on yahoo) , Petronet LNG (PLNG.NS) and IDBI (IDBI.NS) are 3 solid stocks fitting the above pattern.
TTML has been experiencing volume breakouts over the past week after consolidating for over more than a year. TTML will benefit from the increasing land-line/mobile phone demand and oligopolyic nature of telecom/mobile service providers. Its been a mystery why the stock has been stuck in a range for such a long time.
PLNG in my opinion is the best Public sector (PSU) natural gas play in the stock market and is experiencing volume breakouts. I think the goverment has privatized this at a discount, another mystery which will remain unsolved.
IDBI has been under constant accumulation as seen from the charts. I believe Merril Lynch acquired 16 Million shares at 87. I think IDBI is fundamentally sound play with low interest boosting large industrial loans disbursement and a new legal framwork which provides for speedy proceedings against delinquient loans.
Tata Motors(TAMO.NS) and Tata Iron and Steel (TISC.NS) also provides a solid case for investment.
TAMO is a leader in automobiles and the charts have been looking very good. The auto manufacturers are increasing prices to factor in the rise in commodity prices like steel/plastic as done by Maruti.
TISC is a good commodity play as the worldwide demand for steel increases and steel makers hike prices. Again the charts are exhibiting bullish signals
ADR's to watch
TTM(Tata motors) is mirroring the NSE stock, so US investors can use this as a proxy for the Indian stock.
Oppenhiemers India fund (IFN) and Morgan stanleys's India fund (IIF) are 2 closed end funds available for for US investors who want exposure to India. I think due to its limited corpus, these funds havn't done as well as Indian Mutual funds or other international funds with bigger capitalizations. Its better to invest in an international funds like Fidelity International Discovery/Templeton Developing Makets and gain broad diversification , rather than go with a laggard funds like IFN or IIF.
Disclaimer : The stocks mentioned above are neither a buy nor a sell recommendation. Investors should do their own due-diligence before making any investments.
